Now, as one of four teams left in the NBA playoffs, it looks like Golden State will have to prove skeptics wrong once more after a recent projection model shows the Warriors with the least-likely chance to hoist the Larry OBrien Trophy when all is said and done. RAPTOR (57) Brooklyn Nets: Yes (-2500) / No (+950) Despite trading Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant, the Nets are getting very short odds to make the playoffs and FanDuel is offering +980 odds for them to miss the postseason. Playoff and title projections: Jevon Carter and Grayson Allen have been fixtures in the Bucks starting lineup and both are contributing in a big way, knocking down over 40 percent of their threes. As of February 21, about 14% of all Western Conference champion tickets at BetMGM were backing Phoenix; 10% of all NBA championship tickets were also on the Suns. Weighted by the minutes played in the 2022 playoffs, the average Golden State player had 2,031 previous career postseason minutes, second among playoff teams behind only the Brooklyn Nets.1 But Boston ranks fourth in that metric among playoff teams, with an average of 1,573 previous playoff minutes, so its not exactly a landslide edge for the Warriors. FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: 9%. If you are having difficulty accessing any content on this website, please visit our Accessibility page. Pivot point for the rest of the season: The Bulls did not make a move at the trade deadline because of their belief in the team when it's at full strength. Perhaps the most interesting move is the Atlanta Hawks, who have moved closer to the top of the table despite firing their coach this month. (Besides, Eastern Conference teams went 226-224 against the West anyway; the weak East is a thing of the past. But in 2022, most indicators from throughout the season suggest that the Celtics are genuinely a better team than the Warriors. Can the Warriors get healthy just in time again? Tucker in the fold, the Heat have a variety who play and think about the game with the same tenaciousness Butler does. Odds & lines subject to change. But in the modern era of basketball, deadline trades are much more effective in acquiring talent for future championship runs than they are in setting up short-term, immediate success. Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +1100 Lets see what looks good. The Kings have moved up 12 spots in the table since the beginning of the season and two from a month ago. They also brought in Russell Westbrook after Utah bought him out. 1 But. Most impactful moment during the season's first half: DeRozan hits back-to-back game-winners on New Year's Eve and New Year's Day. Dont forget the Bucks won the title in 2020-21, when they started the season at +550 in NBA championship odds, and took the Celtics all the way to Game 7 in the 2021-22 Eastern Conference semifinals. Statistical model by Nate Silver, Jay Boice, Neil Paine and Holly Fuong. Values and rankings in key statistical categories for the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors during the 2021-22 NBA playoffs. Things can change fastso keep track of the latest NBA Futuresbefore you bet. After all, the last time Atlanta fired its coach in the middle of the season, it went to the Eastern Conference Finals. About six percent of bettors at BetMGM favor Dallas to win the West. You make a bet like this far off in advance of the event, in this case, the team to win the championship. 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. Boston Celtics (87) Denvers projection is, of course, powered by Nikola Joki, who is projected to once again lead the league in total RAPTOR by a lot. While youre here, check out some of our other NBA betting sitesor unique basketball betting content like our popular first-quarter/first-half betting report or our analysis of which teams perform best on back-to-back days. Still, the Grizzlies are a deep squad. After Boston, the model sees a group of five teams of roughly similar quality in the Hawks, Heat, 76ers, Raptors and Bucks. Most impactful moment during the season's first half: Charlotte is hoping the acquisition of center Montrezl Harrell can help turn things around. Who is the favorite to win the NBA championship? Playoff and title projections: The current betting favorites to win the 2022-23NBA championship are the Boston Celtics at +325 odds. Playoff and title projections: FiveThirtyEights preseason NBA title favorite and the eventual champion by season, plus the number of teams with at least 5 percent title odds, since 2015-16. I realize this is sort of a radical concept, but if a team is better during the regular season and better during the playoffs, it might just be better. Below are the teams that have seen their odds change from just a week ago after the NBA Finals, most of which are minimal and not likely reflections of the draft. Most impactful moment during the season's first half: The Harden trade. NBA Playoffs (275) Were projecting a return to full strength for Ball by early November, and his offensive projection is so strong that it, along with that of Terry Rozier, carries Charlotte to a better-than-expected projected record. One thing to watch: Boston's 3-point shooting. It freed up minutes on the wing and gave the Hawks a pick to potentially use down the road to continue to build the roster. Web 2022-23 NBA Championship odds. A few weeks before the playoffs begin, it could also be Milwaukee's first chance to see Philadelphia with Harden in the lineup. Boston (+300) and Milwaukee (+500) have been two of the top contenders throughout the season, with a combined 18.9% of the NBA championship ticket market, and they remain in a strong position now. RAPTOR foresees the Timberwolves leaping out of the play-in to grab the No. More NBA:Our preseason player projectionsRAPTOR player ratingsBuild your own team, How this works: These forecasts are based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Pivot point for the rest of the season: How will Harden fit? ET, TNT): If Simmons is ready to play, this is arguably the most interesting game left on the NBA's regular-season calendar. Miami Heat (71) (And thats without directly considering the health factor going into the series. The Easts current fifth-place team is available at an astonishing +15000 in the championship odds table and +5000 in the Eastern Conference market. Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +340 As the losses piled up leading into the All-Star break, it became clear the All-Star guard wanted out -- which led to the deal that sent him to the 76ers and brought Simmons, Seth Curry, Andre Drummond and two first-round picks to Brooklyn. Both the Lakers and Clippers made moves up the NBA odds table in February and are now on a positive trajectory toward the playoffs. Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. finding their groove has been huge, but so have the additions of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown. Web FiveThirtyEight projects the Celtics to finish 58-24 with title odds of 26. The No. Simmons didn't want to play for the Sixers anymore and will hear it from the Philadelphia crowd. Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +10000 How much smaller? ET): Any chance to see Antetokounmpo and Embiid go head-to-head is worth watching, but this game could help decide the winner of this year's MVP award. Playoff and title projections: Theyve had key players miss time throughout the season and still managed to have the leagues best record at the break though theyve since fallen behind red-hot Milwaukee. They'll need a healthy Porzingis down the stretch. The Westbrook pickup is confusing, especially with the former MVP getting the opportunity to start and taking minutes from Gordon and Terance Mann. NBA Championship Odds: Trade Deadline Shakes Up Betting Markets (March 1) Chase Kiddy breaks down how the NBA Trade Deadline has shaken up betting markets. Caesars title odds: +20000 The number is much shorter now (+1400) but still long enough to warrant a value bet. FiveThirtyEight's NBA forecast combines an Elo-based model with our CARMELO player projections to calculate each team's "CARM-Elo" rating and its chances of advancing to the playoffs (and. Rough scene. A big part of that resurgence has also been the play of Kawhi Leonard, who is once again reminding the league that he is one of the best players of this generation when at the top of his game. And then we come to the Los Angeles Lakers, who along with the Sacramento Kings are projected to finish several games back of play-in territory.2 Last season, our preseason Lakers projection caused a lot of consternation and was pretty much vindicated by how the season played out. will be almost everything for L.A. Paul George and Kawhi Leonard have been in and out of the lineup. Boston Celtics (+550) It would be extremely unusual for the Kings to snap a historic playoff drought by winning the title with virtually no playoff experience. Originally, the model had him on a load-management plan that would limit his minutes within each game. He has played four games for his new team so far, but if he can help take some of the playmaking and scoring burden off of All-Star guard Darius Garland, Cleveland could have a chance to go from pleasant surprise to making noise in the postseason. These are combined with up-to-date depth charts tracking injuries, trades and other player transactions to generate talent estimates for each team. Its all about health. Must-see game left on the schedule: Nets at 76ers, March 10 (7:30 p.m. In over 1,000 minutes together this season, the duo has produced a 9.84 net rating. When we last saw them On Jan. 26, the Hornets scored a franchise-record 158 points. FiveThirtyEight's NBA forecast projects the winner of each game and predicts each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the NBA finals. Lowry, the greatest player in franchise history, missed the first game in Toronto on Jan. 17 because he was away from the team for personal reasons. Atlanta Hawks (36) It has been a rough ride for coach Tom Thibodeau's team this season. 3 overall draft pick has made himself the favorite for Rookie of the Year honors with 14.9 points, 8.1 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game, while helping anchor a Cavs defense that ranks fourth in the league. *This post was completed before the conclusion of the Clippers and Warriors games went final Tuesday night. Dallas has been a less popular target than Phoenix but is still one of the top four favorites in the West. Dallas is currently +1600 to win the championship a significant upgrade from +2500, where they were before the trade. Jared Dubin is a New York writer and lawyer. The Bucks overtook the Celtics for the Easts top spot, despite three-time All-Star Khris Middleton playing just 20 games and still rounding into form. ET): Led by Mobley and center Jarrett Allen, the Cavs' biggest strengths -- their defense and front court -- will be tested in each meeting with the Sixers and Embiid. The FiveThirtyEight model also gives the Warriors a 27 percent chance of beating the Mavericks in the West finals to advance, while Dallas, on the other hand, has a 73 percent chance of sending the Dubs home. A teams current rating reflects any injuries and rest days in effect at the moment of the team's next game. A blockbuster NBA Trade Deadline delivered a dump truck of showstopping news, dramatically realigning team rosters and superstar affiliations. Most impactful moment during the season's first half: This could be the return of Marcus Smart on Jan. 23, which coincided with Boston's recent hot streak, but we'll instead say it was the acquisition of Derrick White just before the trade deadline. What's unclear is whether they can hit enough shots to truly take advantage of it. While John Collins' recent foot injury that kept him out of the final three games of the break is something to monitor, the Hawks have shown they are capable of going on winning streaks under coach Nate McMillan both last season and this one. Understandably, the result is an NBA odds market that looks remarkably different now than it did just four weeks ago. Cleveland lost two of its top three guards -- Collin Sexton and Ricky Rubio -- to season-ending injuries, so the team made a move before the deadline to pick up LeVert. Durant, 34, has missed his last 20 games with a MCL sprain and Paul, 37, has missed 21 games this season. Suddenly, the 76ers went from being down an All-Star and wondering how they would replace him, to reuniting Harden with Sixers president of basketball operations Daryl Morey, forming arguably the league's toughest 1-2 scoring punch with Embiid. With bench boss Mike Budenholzer in charge and Giannis Antetokounmpo a perennial NBA MVP candidate, Milwaukee is clearly capable enough to win a title this season. 8, 2018 at 11:36 PM 2017-18 NBA Predictions . Three (the Denver Nuggets, Boston Celtics . According to SportsOddsHistory, just eight champions since 1984 have started the year at double-digit odds to win the title. The Cavaliers, like the Timberwolves, are projected to see improvement this season but not join the group of title contenders despite trading for a star (in their case, Donovan Mitchell). The Bulls entered the break on a five-game winning streak on the shoulders of a hot-shooting DeMar DeRozan. Caesars title odds: +1100 That's 3% clear of the next-strongest team, Phoenix. As of Wednesday night, the Celtics have the best chance in the league to win the NBA Finals at 23%, according to FiveThirtyEight. Dallas Mavericks (34) So something has to give between the two predictions. However, that scenario seems less and less likely at this point. Jalen Carters arrest warrant for reckless driving and racing, explained. Phoenix which made the NBA Finals just two seasons ago without Durant has been the more popular betting target of the two. Washington has won three of its past five but is still waiting for Kristaps Porzingis to make his Wizards debut since he was traded to the team on Feb. 10. Phoenix still projects to have one of the NBAs best starting fives, but the bench appears a bit lacking right now even with the return of Dario ari. There are a handful of famous exceptions, like Detroit adding the final piece it needed with Rasheed Wallace in 2004. Weighted by the minutes played in the 2022 playoffs, the average Golden State player had 2,031 previous career postseason minutes, second among playoff teams behind only the Brooklyn Nets. Now, we know that the NBA has arguably the least meaningful regular season in all of professional sports, so perhaps those stats should count for relatively little when comparing the two teams. Eastern Conference. Through it all, Klay Thompson has been playing at arguably an All-Star level, averaging 22.1 points a game while hoisting over 10 threes a game and hitting over 40 percent of them. If Charlotte can defeat Atlanta, it would tie the season series and avoid the Hornets losing that tiebreaker for play-in seeding. If they're not? The Grizzlies have been a little up and down this season, but still sit in second out West. It is not a political statement, just the reality of how the NBA sends out schedules to its teams in the offseason, with home games in blue, road games in red. With Butler leading the way, and Adebayo, Kyle Lowry and P.J. This is not to say there arent any measurable factors breaking in Golden States favor with this matchup. Preseason predicted standings for the NBA's 2021-22 Eastern Conference, according to FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR-based forecast Teams finishing in seventh through 10th place (indicated by black. The Cs currently sit as the +325 chalk, followed by the Milwaukee Bucks at +550 and the Denver Nuggets at +650. If youre hunting for long shots, theres plenty of interesting shuffling happening in the middle of the table. Milwaukee Bucks (72) If thats the case, then teams that remained mostly quiet or added role players in small trades may be best positioned in this years championship market. But when Las Vegas offers a bet on the Nets winning the championship at 7:1 odds, translated to a 12.5 percent likelihood of happening, that is NOT reflective of what they think will happen. Must-see game left on the schedule: Nets at Knicks, April 6 (7:30 p.m. The model shows the Boston Celtics with the best odds at 43 percent, followed by the Dallas Mavericks (35 percent) and the Miami Heat (15 percent). Golden State Warriors (224) NBA Predictions (26). At the deadline, the Clippers added Mason Plumlee, Eric Gordon and Bones Hyland in exchange for aging John Wall and Luke Kennard. Even that might be a tad on the high side, but given how much evidence there is that Boston is better than Golden State on a neutral court, its not exactly unreasonable that the Celtics are favored here. For what it's worth, FiveThirtyEight also predicted that the Warriors would miss the playoffs altogether back in October. Memphis has dropped five of eight during that time. For all those reasons, the Celtics are favored in the NBA championship odds. ET, ESPN): When Miami comes to town at the end of March, there will be less than two weeks to go in the regular season, making it a potentially massive game for seeding purposes for both teams. Atlanta's big stretch under McMillan that led them to the 2020-21 conference finals showed he can push the right buttons down the stretch. Thats a rookie mistake. And with that being said, Golden State would also have homecourt advantage over either the Heat and Celtics should the team advance. Coach Nick Nurse hasn't hesitated to lean on his stars. Pivot point for the rest of the season: The Celtics have looked like one of the NBA's absolute elite teams for close to a month. While many teams likely still think theyre in contention, eight teams are at +1600 or better to win the Larry OBrien trophy, according to DraftKings. Jayson Tatums steady progression has also been a huge factor. March 1, 2023 10:56 AM. A teams full-strength rating assumes all of its key players are in the lineup. If fans are able to be in the stands by then, and Lowry is back, expect a big celebration for the championship-winning point guard's return. Caesars title odds: +600 Neil Paine is the acting sports editor at FiveThirtyEight. The addition of Irving has given Dallas an elite second-scoring option behind Luka Doncic. KCP is knocking down 45 percent of his threes and fitting in to the Nuggets equal opportunity offense. The Warriors are only a game back of the fourth-place Suns in the loss column. Caesars title odds: +2500 Similarly, the Warriors have home-court advantage for the Finals by virtue of their superior record (despite being a lower seed within their own conference). Denver Nuggets (42) Denver and Phoenix might be the favorites in the West, but expect resistance from the City of Angels. With five teams within 2.5 games of first place in the conference, and just six games separating sixth through 11th place, teams will be swapping spots in the standings on a nightly basis. Thats a dangerous upgrade for a team that made last years Western Conference Finals. And in this case, theres plenty of evidence that the better team doesnt have home-court advantage. The East has been much more stable, as contenders seem content with the core rosters they assembled prior to the start of the season. Preseason predicted standings for the NBAs 2022-23 Eastern Conference, according to FiveThirtyEights RAPTOR-based forecast. Caesars title odds: +50000 The Nuggets projection also greatly benefits from the returns of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr., as well as more minutes for Bones Hyland and the offseason addition of Bruce Brown (FROM? One surprise team that fits the bill is the Cleveland Cavaliers, who elected to make no moves at the deadline. A teams full-strength rating assumes all of its key players are in the lineup. Well begin with the West, home of the defending champs. Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +1500 As a team, theyre impenetrable, which is only part of why we love them at +550 in the NBA championship odds. Well see if the signing works out, but color me skeptical. Most impactful moment during the season's first half: Losing Bradley Beal (wrist) for the season has changed the outlook for a team that started off 10-3 but was struggling when Beal played his last game of the season on Jan. 29. Milwaukee has reiterated it expects Lopez, who is recovering from back surgery, and guard Pat Connaughton, who fractured a finger the night of the trade deadline, to return before the end of the regular season. Health is going to be huge for Phoenix. In the meantime, lets take a look at how we see the standings shaking out in each conference. Much of the deadline drama focused on Western Conference teams adding key pieces and moving into the fray near the top of the odds board. The Suns and Mavericks had the two biggest deadline deals of the season, acquiring Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, respectively, from the Brooklyn Nets. Pivot point for the rest of the season: What kind of an impact will Caris LeVert have? You can find the full 2022-23 NBA championship odds below. That is lofty company to keep. Both the Lakers and Clippers made moves up the NBA odds table in February and are now on a positive trajectory toward the playoffs. Players like Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson, Lauri Markkanen, Jarred Vanderbilt and Kelly Olynyk still project to perform fairly well and to play significant minutes. Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +5000 *Measured by the points per game differential this teams opponents would have against an average team, based on Elo ratings and adjusted for home-court advantage. The All-Star break is over and its time to look ahead to the stretch run of the NBA season. Our player-based RAPTOR forecast doesnt account for wins and losses; it is based entirely on our NBA player projections, which estimate each players future performance based on the trajectory of similar NBA players. Because while Golden State may still win, there isnt much objective support for the Warriors being the heavy favorites in this Finals matchup that theyre currently perceived to be by the wider NBA world. Adding Jae Crowder, whos looked good in three games after so much time off, could add another playoff-proven contributor to the rotation. FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: 0.3%. It should be a heck of a lot of fun to see how the East playoff picture shakes out. Nate McMillan was dismissed in Atlanta on Feb. 21 and replaced by former Jazz coach Quin Snyder. Thats a dangerous upgrade for a team that made last years Western Conference Finals. But the market is bullish on a Lakers team that appears to be more rounded out, with the Lakers ascending up the table from +5000 at the end of January to +2800 immediately after the deadline moves. The Clippers arent the only team in town that made moves. Its common knowledge, of course, that sports are unpredictable -- especially in the volatile NBA where anything can happen in any game. The Clippers arent the only team in town that made moves. Caesars title odds: +650 The Warriors have faced their fair share of doubters this season as theyve overcome adversity to reach their sixth Western Conference finals appearance in the last eight years. The Warriors regular-season projection is dragged down a bit by the poor ratings of James Wiseman and Jonathan Kuminga, both of whom are projected to be fixtures in the Warriors rotation. Our How to Bet on the NBA page has everything you need to know so you can feel comfortable making wagers on pro basketball. As we said before, the Celtics own the best record in the league and are scoring the third-most points (117.6 points per game). I performed a logit regression on NBA Finals results since 2000 while controlling for the pre-series Elo ratings of each team, and I found that a team with home-court advantage over an evenly matched opponent would be expected to win the series 57 percent of the time meaning most of the perceived advantage of home court in the historical Finals records was just an artifact of the better team also having the home court more often than not. Thats a core that NBA bettors really seem to like, too. NBA Finals (82) Nets-Celtics, 7:30 p.m. Now lets move over to the East, where Boston is the favorite with a big caveat. Forecast from How this works: These forecasts are based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. The duo's working relationship ended at the trade deadline when the Mavericks sent Porzingis and the two seasons remaining on his five-year, $158-million deal to the Wizards. At the moment, Dallas is priced identically to Golden State and Memphis in both the Western Conference odds (+800) and the overall championship odds (+1600) markets. But bettors may not mind the coaching shuffle. NBA.com is part of Warner Media, LLCs Turner Sports & Entertainment Digital Network, *Translations are limited to select pages. The big exception is the Nets, whose odds market imploded when the team spun off Durant and Irving. AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, (select parishes), MD, MI, NH, NJ, NY, OH, OR, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY, CA-ONT only.Eligibility restrictions apply. Who won the NBA championship last season? If those players stay healthy, the Raptors have a chance to be a threat. The Nuggets have the reigning two-time MVP and the best record in the West yet find themselves with the fourth-best odds. That would certainly be a boost to the team's fortunes as well. They have a 38% chance of returning to the NBA Finals, per FiveThirtyEight, and are +350 at most books to win a championship. Must-see game left on the schedule: 76ers at Cavs, April 3 (6 p.m. One of the main questions for Miami as it heads into the postseason will be who will be able to create offensively besides Butler and Tyler Herro. The 24-year-old is averaging a career-high 30.9 PPG and has jacked up his field-goal percentage to .464. The Cavs dropped their final two games entering the break, but it hardly slowed the momentum for the biggest surprise contender in the conference. The Nuggets have the best record in theWestern Conferenceand have looked like one of the deepest teams in the NBA. It's no surprise White has immediately become a fixture in Boston's closing lineup. This seems to be the approach taken by most Eastern Conference contenders. 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